An Forecasting Platform User Earned $436,000 on Wagers on the Ouster of Maduro.
A bettor made nearly half a million dollars from wagers on the downfall of Nicolás Maduro just before it was made public, raising questions about whether someone profited from non-public details of the event.
Market Movement in Wagers
Predictions made on the forecasting site, a blockchain-based service, that Nicolás Maduro would be no longer in control by the end of January rose in the hours before former President Trump stated on the weekend that the president had been apprehended.
A single trader, which became a member in December and made four bets, all on the Venezuelan situation, earned over $436,000 from a modest bet of $32,537.
Who placed the bet is a mystery. The anonymous account had only a blockchain identifier for identification.
Odds Fluctuate Before News Break
Trading information shows that participants put the odds of the president's removal at just under 7% in the afternoon of Friday, January 2nd.
But these probabilities had climbed to eleven percent by the end of the day and spiked dramatically in the first hours of January 3rd, pointing to a rapid movement in betting activity right before the social media post was made.
"That trade has all the characteristics of a bet based on confidential knowledge," said a financial reform advocate.
Several of other traders also earned large payouts from bets on the same outcome.
Legal Questions Intensifies
Politicians are growing concerned.
A bill introduced on Monday would prevent public officials from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a bet.
The Prediction Market Landscape
Prediction markets have surged in popularity in the past few years, with traders able to bet on everything from sports to political events.
This sector faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. But it has received a warmer welcome during the present political climate.
Insider trading is against the law in the traditional financial markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the event betting space.
An official representative for a competing service said their site "has clear rules against such activities of any form."
